Estádio do Dragão · Referee L. M. Branco Godinho · Analysis updated 21:18 UTC
FC Porto vs Alverca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.97 for Alverca, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.
Model pick
FC Porto to Win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.4%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for FC Porto and 0.97 for Alverca, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
FC Porto to Win is the headline pick at 59% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
FC Porto
Alverca
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.