FC Porto vs Alverca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.86 for Alverca, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Porto win

72.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Porto home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alverca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 17% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for FC Porto and 0.86 for Alverca, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Porto win72%

Draw17%

Alverca win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

2–011.0%
2–19.4%
1–09.0%
3–09.0%
1–17.7%

Recent form

FC Porto

2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-2 (L)

Alverca

2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-0 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
2026-05-02T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-0 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
2025-12-22T18:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-0 Alverca (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	16	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	7	3	2	2	1	11
8	Alverca	8	3	2	3	1	11
9	SC Braga	7	3	2	2	0	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
15	Vitória SC	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	-14	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.