World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round18:15

21

Thursday, 13 August 2026

Stade de Tourbillon · Referee D. Smajc · Analysis updated 21:18 UTC

FC Sion vs FC Noah Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.18 for FC Noah, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives FC Sion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.

Model pick

FC Sion to Win

59.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FC Sion win60%
Draw20%
FC Noah win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams to score61%

Correct score

  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.1%
  • 2–08.3%
  • 1–07.7%
  • 3–17.0%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates FC Sion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.15 goals for FC Sion and 1.18 for FC Noah, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    FC Sion to Win is the headline pick at 60% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

FC Sion

    FC Noah

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.