Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.53 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Fortuna Sittard or Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fortuna Sittard win44%

Draw23%

Ajax win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–18.8%
1–27.7%
2–26.7%
1–06.6%

Why the model likes this

Fortuna Sittard home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ajax away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Sittard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.53 for Ajax, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Fortuna Sittard

2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-3 (L)

Ajax

2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Shelbourne · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.