Fortuna Sittard Stadion · Analysis updated 04:33 UTC
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.53 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Fortuna Sittard or Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Why the model likes this
Fortuna Sittard home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ajax away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Sittard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.53 for Ajax, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Fortuna Sittard
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-3 (L)
Ajax
- 2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Shelbourne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.