Kwaraa Stadium · Analysis updated 01:55 UTC
Fountain Gate vs Mashujaa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Fountain Gate and 1.27 for Mashujaa, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Mashujaa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Mashujaa to Win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.0%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–29.8%
Why the model likes this
Mashujaa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mashujaa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 25% / 29% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Fountain Gate and 1.27 for Mashujaa, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Recent form
Fountain Gate
Mashujaa
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Coastal Union · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania Prisons · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KMC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fountain Gate · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azam · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Singida Black Stars | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Geita Gold | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Mashujaa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Azam | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Pamba Jiji | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Simba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Kagera Sugar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | JKT Tanzania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Mbeya City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Coastal Union | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Namungo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.