Fountain Gate vs Mashujaa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Fountain Gate and 1.21 for Mashujaa, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Mashujaa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mashujaa win

47.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.74 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fountain Gate home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mashujaa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mashujaa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 23% / 30% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Fountain Gate and 1.21 for Mashujaa, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Fountain Gate win23%

Draw30%

Mashujaa win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–117.2%
0–014.2%
1–112.7%
1–010.5%
0–210.4%

Recent form

Fountain Gate

2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mbeya City · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Namungo · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Singida Black Stars · 0-3 (L)
2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 4-3 (W)

Mashujaa

2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kagera Sugar · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbeya City · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fountain Gate · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Coastal Union · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania Prisons · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligi kuu Bara table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	6	6	0	0	14	18
2	Simba	6	6	0	0	9	18
3	Azam	7	4	2	1	4	14
4	Mashujaa	7	4	0	3	1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	Mbeya City	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	3	1	3	1	10
8	Dodoma Jiji	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Namungo	8	3	0	5	-4	9
10	Geita Gold	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	JKT Tanzania	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Coastal Union	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Tabora United	7	1	3	3	-1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	7	1	1	5	-5	4
15	Fountain Gate	6	1	1	4	-7	4
16	Kagera Sugar	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mashujaa win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.