Austria · Bundesliga · Regular Season - 515:00

15:00 UTC

Saturday, 29 August 2026

Merkur-Arena · Analysis updated 04:32 UTC

Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.51 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Wolfsberger AC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Wolfsberger AC or Draw

69.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Grazer AK win31%
Draw25%
Wolfsberger AC win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams to score55%

Correct score

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–19.9%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 1–07.9%
  • 0–27.5%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Wolfsberger AC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.21 goals for Grazer AK and 1.51 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

  • Model confidence

    Wolfsberger AC or Draw is the headline pick at 69% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Grazer AK

    Wolfsberger AC

    • 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 3-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lauterach · 5-1 (W)
    • 2026-07-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Velden · 4-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Bundesliga table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Lask Linz330089
    2Sturm Graz321037
    3Rapid Vienna220026
    4Wolfsberger AC311124
    5Red Bull Salzburg211014
    6Austria Lustenau311104
    7SCR Altach310203
    8Grazer AK2101-23
    9WSG Wattens2011-21
    10Ried3012-41
    11TSV Hartberg2002-30
    12Austria Vienna2002-50

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.