Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.75 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Wolfsberger AC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Wolfsberger AC win

46.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Grazer AK home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wolfsberger AC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Grazer AK win30%

Draw23%

Wolfsberger AC win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.6%
1–29.3%
0–17.7%
2–17.3%
0–26.7%

Recent form

Grazer AK

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-0 (W)

Wolfsberger AC

2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Vienna · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Parndorf · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 0-1 Wolfsberger AC (Bundesliga)
2026-03-14T16:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 2-0 Wolfsberger AC (Bundesliga)
2026-02-08T13:30:00.000Z · Grazer AK 2-2 Wolfsberger AC (Bundesliga)
2025-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 1-3 Wolfsberger AC (Bundesliga)
2024-11-30T16:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 3-4 Wolfsberger AC (Bundesliga)
2024-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 2-4 Wolfsberger AC (Bundesliga)
2024-01-19T12:00:00.000Z · Grazer AK 0-1 Wolfsberger AC (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-07-06T16:30:00.000Z · Grazer AK 2-1 Wolfsberger AC (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-07-06T16:30:00.000Z · Grazer AK 2-1 Wolfsberger AC (Friendlies Clubs)
2012-09-26T18:20:00.000Z · Grazer AK 0-6 Wolfsberger AC (Cup)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	9	8	0	1	18	24
2	Lask Linz	9	6	1	2	14	19
3	Red Bull Salzburg	8	5	3	0	14	18
4	Ried	9	4	2	3	1	14
5	Sturm Graz	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	TSV Hartberg	9	3	2	4	-4	11
7	Grazer AK	8	2	3	3	-10	9
8	WSG Wattens	8	2	2	4	-4	8
9	Austria Lustenau	9	2	2	5	-8	8
10	Austria Vienna	9	2	1	6	-9	7
11	SCR Altach	8	2	0	6	-4	6
12	Wolfsberger AC	8	1	2	5	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wolfsberger AC win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.