Brazil · Brasiliense U20 · Regular Season - 913:00

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Saturday, 11 July 2026

· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC

Grêmio Valparaíso U20 vs Cruzeiro U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for Grêmio Valparaíso U20 and 1.40 for Cruzeiro U20, a combined total of 4.52. That distribution gives Grêmio Valparaíso U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws roughly 29% of the time.

Model pick

Grêmio Valparaíso U20 to Win

71.4% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

3.12 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Grêmio Valparaíso U20 win71%
Draw15%
Cruzeiro U20 win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals82%
Over 3.5 goals66%
Both teams to score72%

Correct score

  • 3–17.7%
  • 2–17.4%
  • 4–16.0%
  • 3–05.5%
  • 3–25.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Cruzeiro U20 away threat

    Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Grêmio Valparaíso U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 3.12 goals for Grêmio Valparaíso U20 and 1.40 for Cruzeiro U20, a combined 4.52 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 72%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Grêmio Valparaíso U20

    Cruzeiro U20

    • 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional de Muriae U20 · 2-2 (D)
    • 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Itabirito U20 · 3-3 (D)
    • 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs América Mineiro U20 · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paranoa U20 · 0-2 (L)
    • 2026-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mineiro U20 · 0-0 (D)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Brasiliense U20 table

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.