· Analysis updated 20:04 UTC
Grêmio Valparaíso U20 vs Cruzeiro U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for Grêmio Valparaíso U20 and 1.40 for Cruzeiro U20, a combined total of 4.52. That distribution gives Grêmio Valparaíso U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grêmio Valparaíso U20 win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
3.12 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Grêmio Valparaíso U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cruzeiro U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grêmio Valparaíso U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.12 goals for Grêmio Valparaíso U20 and 1.40 for Cruzeiro U20, a combined 4.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.7%
- 2–17.4%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–05.5%
- 3–25.4%
Recent form
Grêmio Valparaíso U20
- 2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceilândia U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Planaltina DF U20 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Maria U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaã U20 · 0-4 (L)
Cruzeiro U20
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club MG U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club MG U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Coimbra U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guanabara City U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston City U20 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasiliense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasiliense U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 9 |
| 2 | Legiao U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Sobradinho U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 4 | Taguatinga U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Capital TO U20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Samambaia U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Gama U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Brazlândia FC SAF U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | CFZ Brasilia U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | ARUC U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 0 |
| 11 | Planaltina U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -21 | 0 |
| 1 | Planaltina DF U20 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Grêmio Valparaíso U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Canaã U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Real Brasília U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Brasília U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Paranoa U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Ceilandense U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 | Santa Maria U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Luziânia U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | Ceilândia U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grêmio Valparaíso U20 win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.