· Referee V. Lehtovaara · Analysis updated 00:48 UTC
Haka vs KäPa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for Haka and 0.89 for KäPa, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Haka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws roughly 25% of the time.
Model pick
Haka to Win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
2.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–09.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.6%
Why the model likes this
KäPa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for Haka and 0.89 for KäPa, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 55%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Haka
KäPa
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs EIF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs MP · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Haka · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.