· Referee V. Lehtovaara · Analysis updated 07:18 UTC
Haka vs KäPa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Haka and 1.28 for KäPa, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Haka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haka win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haka home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KäPa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Haka and 1.28 for KäPa, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Haka
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 2-2 (D)
KäPa
- 2026-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rops · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs MP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haka win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.