Sweden · Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - Relegation Round18:00
IFK UmeåWDLLL

18:00 UTC

Wednesday, 26 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:00 UTC

IFK Umeå vs Umeå FC Akademi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for IFK Umeå and 2.13 for Umeå FC Akademi, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Umeå FC Akademi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Umeå FC Akademi to Win

51.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.54 – 2.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

IFK Umeå win28%
Draw21%
Umeå FC Akademi win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals50%
Both teams to score69%

Correct score

  • 1–28.9%
  • 1–18.4%
  • 2–26.9%
  • 2–16.4%
  • 1–36.3%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Umeå FC Akademi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 28% / 21% / 51% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.54 goals for IFK Umeå and 2.13 for Umeå FC Akademi, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

  • Model confidence

    Umeå FC Akademi to Win is the headline pick at 51% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

IFK Umeå

    Umeå FC Akademi

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Division 2 - Norrland table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Skellefteå128311827
      2Täfteå128132125
      3IFK Luleå128131825
      4Boden12453117
      5Umeå FC Akademi12255-1211
      6Storfors12228-188
      7IFK Umeå121110-284
      1Kubikenborg12723923
      2Gottne12723523
      3Lucksta12534018
      4IFK Östersund12453317
      5Friska Viljor12264212
      6Umea FF12255-411
      7Fransta12237-159

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.