· Analysis updated 23:55 UTC
IFK Umeå vs Umeå FC Akademi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for IFK Umeå and 1.80 for Umeå FC Akademi, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives IFK Umeå the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
IFK Umeå or Draw
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Umeå to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for IFK Umeå and 1.80 for Umeå FC Akademi, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
IFK Umeå or Draw is the headline pick at 63% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
IFK Umeå
Umeå FC Akademi
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.