Finland · Ykkönen · Group Stage11:00
JJKDLLLD

11:00 UTC

Saturday, 29 August 2026

KPV-jLLWLD

Harjun Stadion · Analysis updated 02:42 UTC

JJK vs KPV-j Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.72 expected goals for JJK and 1.07 for KPV-j, a combined total of 4.79. That distribution gives JJK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws roughly 16% of the time.

Model pick

JJK to Win

84.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

3.72 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

JJK win84%
Draw10%
KPV-j win7%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

91%

Double chance X2

16%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals84%
Over 3.5 goals69%
Both teams to score63%

Correct score

  • 3–17.6%
  • 3–07.1%
  • 4–17.1%
  • 4–06.6%
  • 2–16.2%

Why the model likes this

  • KPV-j away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Head-to-head goals

    Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates JJK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 7% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 3.72 goals for JJK and 1.07 for KPV-j, a combined 4.79 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

JJK

    KPV-j

    • 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs VJS · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tampere United · 0-6 (L)
    • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SalPa · 3-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OLS · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Rops · 1-1 (D)

    Head-to-head

    • 2026-06-13T14:00:00.000Z · JJK 3-2 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · JJK 0-4 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2025-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · JJK 0-3 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2025-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · JJK 3-0 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2024-07-20T13:00:00.000Z · JJK 2-0 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2024-05-13T15:30:00.000Z · JJK 0-3 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2023-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · JJK 1-3 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2023-06-28T15:30:00.000Z · JJK 0-0 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2023-04-15T13:00:00.000Z · JJK 0-0 KPV-j (Ykkönen)
    • 2023-01-28T14:00:00.000Z · JJK 0-1 KPV-j (Ykköscup)

    Ykkönen table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Tampere United2012532641
    2Rops2010731737
    3OLS208751031
    4PKKU19865830
    5SalPa20866130
    6VJS19784929
    7FC jazz20857129
    8JJK19757626
    9TPV20569-921
    10Inter Turku II19559-1520
    11KPV-j193313-4012
    12KuPS Akatemia192512-1411

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.