Kalisz vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kalisz and 1.21 for Unia Swarzędz, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Kalisz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Kalisz or Draw

69.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Kalisz win43%

Draw26%

Unia Swarzędz win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.0%
2–19.0%
0–18.2%
2–07.4%

Why the model likes this

Kalisz home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kalisz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Kalisz and 1.21 for Unia Swarzędz, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	2.05	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	3.50	10Bet
Match Result	Away	2.90	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	1.80	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	1.80	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.28	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.20	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.70	10Bet

Recent form

Kalisz

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kotwica Kórnik · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Swarzędz · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flota Świnoujście · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 2-2 (D)

Unia Swarzędz

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.