Stadion Miejski · Analysis updated 07:57 UTC
Kalisz vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kalisz and 1.21 for Unia Swarzędz, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Kalisz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kalisz home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Unia Swarzędz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kalisz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Kalisz and 1.21 for Unia Swarzędz, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Draw/Away at 1.70 (model 56.6% vs market 53.4%, edge +3.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/AwayValue | 1.70 | 53.4% | 56.6% | 1.77 | +3.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 1.98 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.8% | 31.0% | 3.23 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 25.6% | 3.91 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.6% | 43.4% | 2.30 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 2.02 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.7% | 74.4% | 1.34 | -1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 70.9% | 69.0% | 1.45 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kalisz
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Środa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczevia Stargard · 1-0 (W)
Unia Swarzędz
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kotwica Kórnik · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Flota Świnoujście · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzino · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Luzino | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Elana Toruń | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Gedania Gdansk | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Kalisz | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Grom Nowy Staw | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Flota Świnoujście | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 15 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | Kotwica Kórnik | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.