Finland · Ykkösliiga · Group Stage16:00
KäPaLLLLL

16:00 UTC

Friday, 25 September 2026

HakaWWWWD

Brahenkentta · Analysis updated 02:41 UTC

KäPa vs Haka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for KäPa and 2.19 for Haka, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Haka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.

Model pick

Haka to Win

62.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.08 – 2.19

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

KäPa win18%
Draw20%
Haka win63%

Double chance 1X

38%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams to score59%

Correct score

  • 1–29.8%
  • 0–29.1%
  • 1–19.0%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 1–37.2%

Why the model likes this

  • KäPa home form

    4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Haka away threat

    Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Haka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 18% / 20% / 63% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.08 goals for KäPa and 2.19 for Haka, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

KäPa

  • 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs EIF · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-07-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs MP · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Haka · 1-3 (L)
  • 2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 0-2 (L)

Haka

  • 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs JIPPO · 3-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 4-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KäPa · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Klubi-04 · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ykkösliiga table

Full league page →
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Kooteepee1913331342
2PK-351911531738
3Haka1911441837
4JIPPO19874831
5JäPS19919-828
6EIF18729-623
7MP18639-521
8KäPa194411-1216
9Klubi-04192710-913
10SJK Akatemia192611-1612

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.