Markku.fi Areena · Referee K. Nummela · Analysis updated 07:18 UTC
KäPa vs Haka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for KäPa and 1.78 for Haka, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Haka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haka win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KäPa home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Haka away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 18% / 23% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for KäPa and 1.78 for Haka, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 0–211.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
KäPa
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Klubi-04 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-0 (D)
Haka
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haka win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.