· Referee K. Bartuskevicius · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Kauno Žalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.65 for Hegelmann Litauen, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Kauno Žalgiris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws roughly 22% of the time.
Model pick
Kauno Žalgiris to Win
77.8% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.3%
- 3–011.1%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.3%
Why the model likes this
Kauno Žalgiris home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hegelmann Litauen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kauno Žalgiris to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.65 for Hegelmann Litauen, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann Litauen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KI Klaksvik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KI Klaksvik · 0-0 (D)
Hegelmann Litauen
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-27T15:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-20T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 37 |
| 2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Banga | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -17 | 23 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | -15 | 22 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -28 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.