· Referee K. Bartuskevicius · Analysis updated 09:20 UTC
Kauno Žalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.83 for Hegelmann Litauen, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Kauno Žalgiris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kauno Žalgiris win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kauno Žalgiris home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Hegelmann Litauen away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.9%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-10-11T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-1 (W)
Hegelmann Litauen
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 2-0 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2026-06-14T11:15:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2026-04-11T11:15:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 5-0 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2025-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2025-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 2-1 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2025-06-19T17:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 2-1 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2025-04-16T16:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 3-1 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2024-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2024-06-23T11:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 4-1 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
- 2024-04-28T10:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Banga | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -4 | 39 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kauno Žalgiris win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.