· Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
Moravia Morawica vs Chełmianka Chełm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Moravia Morawica and 1.62 for Chełmianka Chełm, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Chełmianka Chełm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.
Model pick
Chełmianka Chełm to Win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.6%
Why the model likes this
Chełmianka Chełm away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chełmianka Chełm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 19% / 25% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Moravia Morawica and 1.62 for Chełmianka Chełm, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Moravia Morawica
Chełmianka Chełm
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Moravia Morawica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kolb. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | KSZO 1929 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisła Kraków II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Naprzód | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Busko-Zdroj | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Moravia Morawica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Jarosław | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Sokół Kolb. | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.