· Analysis updated 10:58 UTC
Moravia Morawica vs Chełmianka Chełm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Moravia Morawica and 1.69 for Chełmianka Chełm, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Chełmianka Chełm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chełmianka Chełm win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moravia Morawica home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chełmianka Chełm away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chełmianka Chełm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 14% / 23% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Moravia Morawica and 1.69 for Chełmianka Chełm, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.6%
- 0–214.0%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–09.9%
- 1–28.8%
Recent form
Moravia Morawica
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Naprzód · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chełmianka Chełm · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice · 0-2 (L)
Chełmianka Chełm
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · Moravia Morawica 0-3 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 24 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Sokół Kolb. | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chełmianka Chełm win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.