Nacional vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Nacional and 1.75 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Santa Clara or Draw

66.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Nacional win33%

Draw23%

Santa Clara win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–28.9%
2–17.6%
0–16.8%
2–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Nacional home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Clara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Nacional and 1.75 for Santa Clara, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Nacional

2026-08-10T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 3-3 (D)

Santa Clara

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Vitória SC	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.