Nacional vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Nacional and 2.00 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Santa Clara win

66.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nacional home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Clara away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nacional win13%

Draw20%

Santa Clara win67%

Double chance 1X

33%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

87%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–112.8%
0–212.8%
1–19.6%
1–29.6%
0–38.5%

Recent form

Nacional

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)

Santa Clara

2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mafra · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-10T19:15:00.000Z · Nacional 2-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
2026-05-11T19:15:00.000Z · Nacional 0-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
2026-01-11T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 3-3 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
2025-03-30T14:30:00.000Z · Nacional 0-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
2024-11-04T20:15:00.000Z · Nacional 2-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
2024-03-17T14:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-0 Santa Clara (Segunda Liga)
2024-01-11T18:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-1 Santa Clara (Taça de Portugal)
2023-11-04T18:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-1 Santa Clara (Segunda Liga)
2022-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-2 Santa Clara (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-04-11T14:30:00.000Z · Nacional 1-5 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Santa Clara win, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.