Hiiu Stadium · Analysis updated 04:40 UTC
Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Nõmme Kalju II and 2.50 for Flora II, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Flora II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.
Model pick
Flora II to Win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–36.9%
Why the model likes this
Flora II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flora II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 15% / 17% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Nõmme Kalju II and 2.50 for Flora II, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Nõmme Kalju II
Flora II
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 48 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 41 |
| 3 | Flora II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 37 |
| 4 | Elva | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 34 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 32 |
| 6 | Maardu | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 32 |
| 7 | FCI Levadia II | 23 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 31 |
| 8 | FC Tallinn | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -22 | 24 |
| 9 | Nõmme United II | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 23 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -27 | 19 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.