Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Nõmme Kalju II and 2.50 for Flora II, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Flora II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.

Model pick

Flora II to Win

67.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.13 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Nõmme Kalju II win15%

Draw17%

Flora II win67%

Double chance 1X

33%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–29.4%
0–28.3%
1–37.8%
1–17.5%
0–36.9%

Why the model likes this

Nõmme Kalju II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Flora II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Nõmme Kalju II

2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora II · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maardu · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 0-5 (L)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FCI Levadia II · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viimsi · 2-2 (D)

Flora II

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 0-3 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 0-5 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2026-03-19T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 1-3 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2025-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 3-0 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2025-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 2-1 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2025-05-19T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 0-3 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2025-04-06T09:30:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 2-1 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2018-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 1-1 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2018-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 0-6 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2018-06-08T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 1-2 Flora II (Esiliiga A)

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	23	15	3	5	35	48
2	Viimsi	23	12	5	6	20	41
3	Flora II	23	11	4	8	14	37
4	Elva	23	10	4	9	4	34
5	Tallinna Kalev	23	9	5	9	2	32
6	Maardu	23	9	5	9	-14	32
7	FCI Levadia II	23	10	1	12	0	31
8	FC Tallinn	23	6	6	11	-22	24
9	Nõmme United II	22	6	5	11	-12	23
10	Nõmme Kalju II	22	5	4	13	-27	19

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.