Fratton Park · Analysis updated 04:12 UTC
Portsmouth vs Swansea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Portsmouth and 2.50 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Swansea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws roughly 30% of the time.
Model pick
Swansea to Win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–37.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–17.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swansea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 13% / 17% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Portsmouth and 2.50 for Swansea, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 58%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Swansea to Win is the headline pick at 70% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Portsmouth
Swansea
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.