Portsmouth vs Swansea Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.65 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Swansea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Swansea win

49.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Portsmouth home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Swansea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swansea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Portsmouth and 1.65 for Swansea, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Portsmouth win27%

Draw24%

Swansea win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
0–110.0%
1–29.5%
0–28.3%
1–07.0%

Recent form

Portsmouth

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 0-2 (L)

Swansea

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-10T19:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea (Championship)
2025-12-09T19:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 0-1 Swansea (Championship)
2025-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 4-0 Swansea (Championship)
2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-2 Swansea (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	West Ham	10	5	4	1	17	19
4	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
5	QPR	10	4	5	1	6	17
6	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
7	Southampton	10	6	2	2	11	16
8	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
9	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	3	2	14
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	3	3	4	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	5	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	7	-3	9
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	3	6	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Swansea win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.