Frankfurt Arena · Referee D. Orsato · Analysis updated 21:19 UTC
Portugal vs Slovenia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Portugal and 0.83 for Slovenia, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Portugal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Portugal to Win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 2–09.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portugal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 29% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Portugal and 0.83 for Slovenia, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Model confidence
Portugal to Win is the headline pick at 46% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Portugal
Slovenia
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Euro Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Italy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 4 | Albania | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | England | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Denmark | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Serbia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Romania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Slovakia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ukraine | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Türkiye | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Georgia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Georgia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Slovakia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | Croatia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.