Racing Santander vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.47 expected goals for Racing Santander and 1.93 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws roughly 28% of the time.

Model pick

Alaves to Win

72.3% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.47 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Racing Santander win8%

Draw20%

Alaves win72%

Double chance 1X

28%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

92%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

0–117.5%
0–216.8%
0–310.8%
0–09.1%
1–18.3%

Why the model likes this

Racing Santander home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alaves away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 8% / 20% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.47 goals for Racing Santander and 1.93 for Alaves, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Racing Santander

2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 0-2 (L)

Alaves

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.