Racing Santander vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.48 expected goals for Racing Santander and 1.93 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Alaves win

72.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.48 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Racing Santander home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alaves away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Racing Santander win8%

Draw20%

Alaves win72%

Double chance 1X

28%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

92%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

0–117.5%
0–216.8%
0–310.8%
0–09.1%
1–18.3%

Recent form

Racing Santander

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-7 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-3 (L)

Alaves

2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves (La Liga)
2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-07-17T17:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 0-0 Alaves (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-07-22T17:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 1-2 Alaves (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-01-21T20:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 0-3 Alaves (Segunda División)
2022-11-01T17:30:00.000Z · Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves (Segunda División)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alaves win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.