Estadio El Sardinero · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Racing Santander vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Racing Santander and 1.54 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
Villarreal or Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.7%
- 0–27.6%
Why the model likes this
Racing Santander home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarreal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 25% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Racing Santander and 1.54 for Villarreal, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 3.20 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.45 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 2.15 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 3.75 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 9.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 5.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.14 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.62 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.20 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Racing Santander
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 0-2 (L)
Villarreal
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-17T18:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 2-1 Villarreal (Copa del Rey)
- 2012-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 1-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2011-12-03T17:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 1-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2011-02-27T18:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2010-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 0-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.