Racing Santander vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Racing Santander and 2.24 for Villarreal, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Villarreal win

47.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.84 – 2.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Racing Santander home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Racing Santander win32%

Draw20%

Villarreal win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.8%
2–27.2%
1–16.9%
2–16.4%
1–35.8%

Recent form

Racing Santander

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-7 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-3 (L)

Villarreal

2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
2025-12-17T18:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 2-1 Villarreal (Copa del Rey)
2012-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 1-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
2011-12-03T17:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 1-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
2011-02-27T18:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
2010-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · Racing Santander 0-2 Villarreal (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Villarreal win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.