San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.50 for Minnesota United FC, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives San Jose Earthquakes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Jose Earthquakes win43%

Draw23%

Minnesota United FC win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–18.8%
1–27.8%
1–06.9%
2–26.6%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates San Jose Earthquakes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.50 for Minnesota United FC, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

San Jose Earthquakes

Minnesota United FC

2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	16	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	13	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	3	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	4	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	5	6	0	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Minnesota United FC	18	6	6	6	-5	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	2	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	5	7	7	-5	22
13	San Diego	18	5	6	7	3	21
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	-28	14
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	21	40
2	Inter Miami	18	11	5	2	13	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.