PayPal Park · Referee Jair Antonio Maruffo, USA · Analysis updated 08:23 UTC
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.55 for Minnesota United FC, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Minnesota United FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Jose Earthquakes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Minnesota United FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes
- 2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 2-2 (D)
Minnesota United FC
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-04-29T02:00:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 4-2 Minnesota United FC (US Open Cup)
- 2025-07-13T00:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-4 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-03-09T03:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-09-01T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-07-21T00:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 0-2 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-10-01T00:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-09-03T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-02-15T20:00:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 4-1 Minnesota United FC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-10-02T02:00:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 2-0 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 43 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | -40 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 55 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 55 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 51 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 42 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | -15 | 39 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 35 |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -26 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.