Septemvri Simitli vs CSKA Sofia III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Septemvri Simitli and 0.50 for CSKA Sofia III, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Septemvri Simitli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Septemvri Simitli to Win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Septemvri Simitli win55%

Draw30%

CSKA Sofia III win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

1–021.7%
0–017.4%
2–013.6%
1–110.9%
0–18.7%

Why the model likes this

Septemvri Simitli home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Simitli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 30% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Septemvri Simitli and 0.50 for CSKA Sofia III, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 28%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.

Recent form

Septemvri Simitli

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostinbrod · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasica · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 0-0 (D)

CSKA Sofia III

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.