Septemvri Simitli vs CSKA Sofia III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Septemvri Simitli and 0.50 for CSKA Sofia III, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Septemvri Simitli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Septemvri Simitli win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Septemvri Simitli home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Sofia III away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Simitli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 30% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Septemvri Simitli and 0.50 for CSKA Sofia III, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Septemvri Simitli win55%

Draw30%

CSKA Sofia III win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

1–021.7%
0–017.4%
2–013.6%
1–110.9%
0–18.7%

Recent form

Septemvri Simitli

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Strumska Slava · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oborishte · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bansko · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Razlog · 1-1 (D)

CSKA Sofia III

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasitsa · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostinbrod · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slivnishki geroy · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	13	9	3	1	21	30
2	Oborishte	12	7	4	1	13	25
3	Bansko	11	8	1	2	9	25
4	Kostinbrod	12	7	0	5	10	21
5	Strumska Slava	11	6	2	3	8	20
6	Septemvri Sofia II	12	6	1	5	1	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	13	6	1	6	-3	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	Slavia Sofia II	12	5	1	6	2	16
10	CSKA Sofia III	12	3	7	2	2	16
11	Botev Ihtiman	11	5	1	5	1	16
12	Septemvri Simitli	12	3	5	4	-4	14
13	Chavdar Etropole	13	4	2	7	-15	14
14	Levski Sofia II	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Belasitsa	13	3	3	7	-6	12
16	Natsional Sofia	12	2	4	6	-6	10
17	Kyustendil	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Pirin Razlog	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Septemvri Simitli win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.