Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán · Referee Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.03 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Sevilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Sevilla or Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.3%
Why the model likes this
Sevilla home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Vallecano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 2.28 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.05 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.42 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 2.80 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.62 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 7.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 8.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.06 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.91 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.83 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Sevilla
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 0-0 (D)
Rayo Vallecano
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-08T17:30:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2025-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2025-03-01T15:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2024-11-24T15:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2024-02-05T20:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2023-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 2-2 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2023-02-19T15:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2022-10-29T16:30:00.000Z · Sevilla 0-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2022-03-13T13:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 2021-08-15T20:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 3-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.