Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.03 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Sevilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Sevilla or Draw

70.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sevilla win42%

Draw28%

Rayo Vallecano win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–012.7%
0–110.3%
0–010.0%
2–18.3%

Why the model likes this

Sevilla home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Vallecano away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	2.28	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	3.05	10Bet
Match Result	Away	3.30	10Bet
Goals	Over 1.5	1.42	10Bet
Goals	Under 1.5	2.80	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	2.25	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	1.62	10Bet
Goals	Over 3.5	4.20	10Bet
Goals	Under 3.5	1.22	10Bet
Goals	Over 0.5	1.08	10Bet
Goals	Under 0.5	7.50	10Bet
Goals	Over 4.5	8.50	10Bet
Goals	Under 4.5	1.06	10Bet
BTTS	Yes	1.91	10Bet
BTTS	No	1.83	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.33	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.30	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.62	10Bet

Recent form

Sevilla

2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 0-0 (D)

Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-08T17:30:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2025-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2025-03-01T15:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2024-11-24T15:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2024-02-05T20:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2023-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 2-2 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2023-02-19T15:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2022-10-29T16:30:00.000Z · Sevilla 0-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2022-03-13T13:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
2021-08-15T20:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 3-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.