Shakhter Stadion · Analysis updated 06:08 UTC
Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.51 for Taraz, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Shakhter Karagandy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws roughly 20% of the time.
Model pick
Shakhter Karagandy to Win
79.9% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 0.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.7%
- 1–012.9%
- 3–012.7%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhter Karagandy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 14% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.51 for Taraz, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 36%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Model confidence
Shakhter Karagandy to Win is the headline pick at 80% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Shakhter Karagandy
Taraz
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 49 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 46 | 43 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 38 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Astana II | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 6 | Jaiyq | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 26 |
| 7 | Ekibastuz | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -7 | 26 |
| 8 | Taraz | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 9 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 24 |
| 10 | Khan Tengri | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | Aktobe Jas | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -29 | 17 |
| 12 | Arys | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -19 | 14 |
| 13 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -18 | 12 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -20 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.