Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.51 for Taraz, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Shakhter Karagandy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws roughly 20% of the time.

Model pick

Shakhter Karagandy to Win

79.9% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.42 – 0.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Shakhter Karagandy win80%

Draw14%

Taraz win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

2–015.7%
1–012.9%
3–012.7%
2–17.9%
4–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhter Karagandy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 14% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.51 for Taraz, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 36%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Model confidence
Shakhter Karagandy to Win is the headline pick at 80% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Shakhter Karagandy

Taraz

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	18	16	1	1	44	49
2	Sport Academy Kairat	18	13	4	1	46	43
3	Turan Turkistan	18	12	2	4	24	38
4	Akademiya Ontustik	18	9	3	6	5	30
5	Astana II	18	8	2	8	-4	26
6	Jaiyq	18	8	2	8	-5	26
7	Ekibastuz	18	7	5	6	-7	26
8	Taraz	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Kaspij Aktau 2	18	7	3	8	-4	24
10	Khan Tengri	18	5	3	10	-13	18
11	Aktobe Jas	18	4	5	9	-29	17
12	Arys	18	4	2	12	-19	14
13	Yelimay Semey 2	18	3	3	12	-18	12
14	Tobol 2	18	2	4	12	-20	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.