Tolka Park · Referee C. Pereira · Analysis updated 21:16 UTC
Shelbourne vs Ajax Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Shelbourne and 3.00 for Ajax, a combined total of 5.33. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.
Model pick
Ajax to Win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–25.9%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–25.1%
- 1–35.1%
- 3–24.6%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 30% / 17% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Shelbourne and 3.00 for Ajax, a combined 5.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 85%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Model confidence
Ajax to Win is the headline pick at 53% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Shelbourne
Ajax
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.