Shelbourne vs Ajax Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Shelbourne and 3.00 for Ajax, a combined total of 5.33. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

Ajax to Win

52.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.33 – 3.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Shelbourne win30%

Draw17%

Ajax win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals90%

Over 3.5 goals77%

Both teams to score85%

Correct score

2–25.9%
2–35.9%
1–25.1%
1–35.1%
3–24.6%

Why the model likes this

Ajax away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 30% / 17% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Shelbourne and 3.00 for Ajax, a combined 5.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 85%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Recent form

Shelbourne

Ajax

2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Shelbourne · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.