Poland · Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 518:15

18:15 UTC

Saturday, 22 August 2026

Tarczynski Arena · Analysis updated 02:45 UTC

Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.18 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Slask Wroclaw the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.

Model pick

Slask Wroclaw or Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Slask Wroclaw win37%
Draw28%
Widzew Łódź win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams to score49%

Correct score

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–011.1%
  • 0–110.8%
  • 0–09.2%
  • 2–17.9%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Slask Wroclaw to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.21 goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.18 for Widzew Łódź, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

  • Model confidence

    Slask Wroclaw or Draw is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Slask Wroclaw

    Widzew Łódź

    • 2026-08-15T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-09T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 0-0 (D)
    • 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Motor Lublin · 2-2 (D)
    • 2026-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 2-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.