Tarczyński Arena Wrocław · Referee Marcin Kochanek, Poland · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.03 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Widzew Łódź the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slask Wroclaw home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Widzew Łódź away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Slask Wroclaw
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Krakow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 2-1 (W)
Widzew Łódź
- 2026-10-11T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Radomiak Radom · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T18:15:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 3-3 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-02-15T13:45:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 3-0 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-08-11T18:15:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-03-02T16:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-08-25T18:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 2-0 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-02-17T19:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
- 2019-09-24T18:30:00.000Z · Slask Wroclaw 0-2 Widzew Łódź (Cup)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.