Southport vs Buxton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Southport and 1.40 for Buxton, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Buxton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Buxton or Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Southport win36%

Draw26%

Buxton win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–18.9%
1–08.6%
1–28.5%
2–18.2%

Why the model likes this

Southport home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buxton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Southport and 1.40 for Buxton, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	2.60	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	3.30	10Bet
Match Result	Away	2.40	10Bet
Goals	Over 1.5	1.25	10Bet
Goals	Under 1.5	3.65	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	1.77	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	1.95	10Bet
Goals	Over 3.5	2.88	10Bet
Goals	Under 3.5	1.38	10Bet
BTTS	Yes	1.57	10Bet
BTTS	No	2.15	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.44	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.22	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.45	10Bet

Recent form

Southport

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxton · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wigan · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 2-0 (W)

Buxton

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Southport 1-1 Buxton (National League - North)
2026-02-17T19:45:00.000Z · Southport 0-0 Buxton (National League - North)
2025-11-15T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 3-2 Buxton (FA Trophy)
2025-11-04T19:45:00.000Z · Southport 2-1 Buxton (National League - North)
2025-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 1-2 Buxton (National League - North)
2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Southport 3-2 Buxton (National League - North)
2024-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 2-2 Buxton (National League - North)
2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 1-0 Buxton (National League - North)
2023-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 0-1 Buxton (National League - North)
2022-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Southport 1-4 Buxton (National League - North)

National League - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chester	2	2	0	0	3	6
2	Worksop Town	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	Macclesfield	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	South Shields	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Oxford City	2	2	0	0	2	6
6	Hebburn Town	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Brackley Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Buxton	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Spennymoor Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Harborough Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Merthyr Town	2	1	0	1	1	3
12	Spalding United	2	1	0	1	1	3
13	Darlington 1883	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Scarborough Athletic	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	Hereford	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	Morecambe	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Southport	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	King's Lynn Town	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	AFC Telford United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Bedford Town	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Chorley	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Marine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Hednesford Town	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Radcliffe	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.