Haig Avenue · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Southport vs Buxton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Southport and 2.50 for Buxton, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Buxton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Buxton win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Southport home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Buxton away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–37.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Southport
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spennymoor Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morecambe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worksop Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Morecambe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spalding United · 0-2 (L)
Buxton
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chorley · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worksop Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs King's Lynn Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Shields · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs South Shields · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Southport 1-1 Buxton (National League - North)
- 2026-02-17T19:45:00.000Z · Southport 0-0 Buxton (National League - North)
- 2025-11-15T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 3-2 Buxton (FA Trophy)
- 2025-11-04T19:45:00.000Z · Southport 2-1 Buxton (National League - North)
- 2025-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 1-2 Buxton (National League - North)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Southport 3-2 Buxton (National League - North)
- 2024-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 2-2 Buxton (National League - North)
- 2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 1-0 Buxton (National League - North)
- 2023-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Southport 0-1 Buxton (National League - North)
- 2022-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Southport 1-4 Buxton (National League - North)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buxton win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.