· Analysis updated 02:54 UTC
Sparta Katowice vs Goczałkowice Zdrój Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sparta Katowice and 0.86 for Goczałkowice Zdrój, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Sparta Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.
Model pick
Sparta Katowice to Win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.2%
Why the model likes this
Goczałkowice Zdrój away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Sparta Katowice and 0.86 for Goczałkowice Zdrój, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Sparta Katowice
Goczałkowice Zdrój
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Barycz Sułów | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Stal Brzeg | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 4 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Stilon Gorzów | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Carina Gubin | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sparta Katowice | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Warta Gorzów | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | ROW Rybnik | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Kluczbork | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Ślęza Wrocław | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Polonia Nysa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Miedź Legnica II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Rakow II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.